Now with no major news peg, no scandal, really, not much, does Sen. Roberts take such a commanding lead? Were his negative TV ads that effective? Frankly, I doubt anyone is paying much attention to the Senate race yet.

Perhaps it was the earlier polling that overstated Slattery's support. But if you look at Rasmussen Poll to Rasumssen Poll and throw out the others, those polls showed Roberts with a healthy lead, then Slattery closing the gap, then Roberts turning and burning.

I'm not saying the polling is wrong. Chances are it is probably correct. But as we learned in the Democratic Presidential Primaries this winter and spring, you can't always count on what you think the polls are telling you.